Guide

Probably Stolen tips: rent, contraband and fakes

By George In The Meta · 28 Oct 2026 · updated 30 Oct 2026

Short answer: my Probably Stolen tips, from playing the demo to day 15, are to pay the rent every week, keep contraband out of your display case, fill the display case with whatever you've got loads of, keep the wanted list open, and check every pack of Hemingways against the handbook. Expect it to start slow and then throw a lot at you at once. On Rock Bottom, where you start with nothing, I got to day 31 and never got near buying the shop. It fucking slaps, and I'd buy it day one: it's out now on Steam at $17.99 or £15.29 at launch (Probably Stolen on Steam).

The latest: Probably Stolen came out at 13:00 UK time on 28 October and peaked at 86,099 players at once on launch day (SteamDB), within 90 minutes of going live. The developers say it sold 200,000 copies in the first few hours (Steam), and 67,964 people were still playing at 08:16 UK the next morning.

What should a beginner know in Probably Stolen?

A beginner in Probably Stolen should know it starts slow, but then it rapidly gives you a lot of information you need to be aware of at once. By day three I had the wanted list up, the counterfeit handbook up and the colour card up across my screen, with customers lining up on me. There are three things to keep straight:

• The wanted list: who to report to security and what each one pays (every name and bounty). Make it small and park it at the side, because you can leave it open all day.
• The counterfeit handbook: how to check Hemingway cigarettes for fakes (see below).
• The dossier: every note you get can go in it, the wanted list included, which is so convenient.

After the first few days, you get inundated with things to look out for. There are loads of new machines, but I couldn't buy most of them because I couldn't afford them or fit them in, so I mainly stuck to the furnace. I started running out of space to even just have stuff in my inventory, and somehow I ended up with five magnifying glasses. I don't know if you can sell them to other people.

How do you rotate items in Probably Stolen?

Press Q to rotate items in Probably Stolen, and E to turn them the other way. Oh my stars. I only found that on my Rock Bottom run, after a whole first run of running out of space under the counter. The hint overlay (press O) lists the rest: F flips whatever you're dragging, and Ctrl, Shift or Alt with a click sends an item straight to your inventory, display case or counter. The patch notes say the mouse wheel and middle click rotate and flip too (update 049).

How does rent work in Probably Stolen?

Rent in Probably Stolen is due every seven days, when the landlord comes to your counter, and if you miss it, the missed week stacks on top of the next one. I hecked up my rent. I completely misjudged it and missed the first one on day seven. After that it kept showing me 210, but the two weeks had stacked, so on day 14 I owed 420. Luckily, I did have the 420. I don't know if missing it costs you anything beyond that.

I went into day 15 with 69 credits, and my save says the next rent is 220, so it creeps up. Did rent get tight? Yes. I was kind of getting cucked by people wanting to sell me stuff and not enough people wanting to buy stuff: from day four to day 14, my game log shows 37 customers came to my counter only to sell and 31 only to buy.

Rent day runs the same way every week, at least on my Rock Bottom run. On all four rent days (7, 14, 21 and 28), the guy in the suit and sunglasses, the Supply Runner, came in to sell at a 50% markup, then a merchant came to buy at a 15% discount, and the landlord was the last customer of the day. That nearly cucked me. Two merchants in a row, the second one buying at a discount, so robbing you again lol. I'm never buying from the merchant with the 50% markup, no idea why you would. Because the landlord comes last, whatever you take that day counts towards the rent. Practically every merchant who came through was one you're never going to buy off. I only had to sell to them once, because I needed 10 to finish paying for my rent: a Nutrifruit for 10 credits on day 14. Rent on Rock Bottom went from 200 on day 7 to 231 by day 28.

The 15% might not be yours: since launch, the merchant states the discount he actually takes on your difficulty, where before he always said 15% (hotfix 1.0.0.1).

What's the best way to make money in Probably Stolen?

The best way I found to make money in Probably Stolen is to put whatever you've got loads of in your display case. Most of mine was household goods. It brings a buyer to you: on every day I had something in the case, my game log shows the first customer of the day came in for that kind of thing, so household goods brought a household buyer and food brought a food buyer. A playtest patch note says the display case doesn't work on day one if the tutorial is on (patch notes).

How does water work in Probably Stolen?

I really don't understand how water works in Probably Stolen. It shows the millilitres in the bottom left, and every single bottle showed zero. The only time it wasn't zero was a water pack. So I don't know if people were trying to sell me empty bottles, or if it's a visual bug. The patch notes point to empty bottles: a water container only counts as water while it's holding liquid, and as a household good when it's empty (update 049).

The tooltips settle it. On my second Rock Bottom run, an empty Bottle of Water (Large) said Household Good, 0 ml of 2,000, worth 9 credits. A full one said Water, 2,000 ml of 2,000, worth 97. So the 0 ml bottles were empty containers, not a bug, and they sell as household goods, not water.

Luxury water cost me on Rock Bottom. I had a bunch of luxury items, and the only water I had was one Bottle of Spring Water. With water in the display case, a water customer was first through the door every day from day 22 to 27, and they didn't want the luxury water. Which was annoying. My game log counts nine visits from water customers on that run, and the bottle was still on my shelf on day 31. The bottle does warn you, if you read it: "No one in the Lower Levels would drink this, even if they were dying of thirst, such is its value." The patch notes say anyone who isn't Upper Level won't take it, and nor will tourists (update 049). So don't fill your case with Spring Water unless Upper Level customers are coming to you.

Water got its own balance patch the night after launch, from player feedback: the Water Purifier was reworked to be "more intuitive", the Water Filter dropped from 50 to 25 credits and the Moisture Farm from 650 to 350 (water balance hotfix). I played the demo, so I haven't tried the new purifier.

How does the Mirage Projector work in Probably Stolen?

The Mirage Projector makes your store more attractive to customers the next day, but it needs a night to charge. I got one for 400 credits on Rock Bottom and put a Performance Module in it for +16%. It runs off a battery (an Energy Cell): mine held enough for about five charges, so I only put the power on once that charge had gone.

The catch is the battery. I don't believe it charged overnight, and having my power on didn't charge it either. The projector stopped working when the battery had one red cell left: my save says the cell was down to 13 of 100, and the projector needs 16 a day, so by day 31 its tooltip had the attractiveness down as inactive. The patch notes mention a Powerbloc charging the batteries and machines next to it once your power is on (update 049). I never had one, so I think that's what I was missing.

The projector's own how-to note says which module does what: an Efficiency module cuts its power use, and Performance and Quality modules raise the attractiveness it adds.

How do you use the Underground Exchange in Probably Stolen?

You use the Underground Exchange in Probably Stolen by putting the items it asks for in your Trash Can before you sleep, with Janitorial Service ticked, and it swaps them overnight, once per deal per night. I got the Underground Exchange Directive again on my second Rock Bottom run, and I don't even know how you do this: the sheet lists the permanent exchanges, but not where you put anything.

The Trash Can part comes from the demo's own files, not from seeing it work. The exchange runs at night inside the Janitorial Service, the same step that empties your Trash Can, and the game has a message for an exchange delivery when the trash can is full. My game log shows the exchange checking on all 11 nights of that run and taking nothing, because I never put anything in the bin.

The permanent exchanges, each once per night:

• Three filters in any condition for a new one
• Two modules for a new module
• Two Vials of "Dream Dust" for random legal goods
• A Command keycard for two random keycards
• Two poisons for another item
• Two lots of ammunition for food
• A Smuggler's Bay and eight injectors for a modified Smuggler's Bay

The promotional exchanges reset on Monday: four Dream Dust for a medical item, four Medical keycards for a medical crate, and two Oxymore Injectors for an Immunivax Injector. The Sawyer's Crew starting perk opens the exchange from day one. Otherwise Sawyer hands you the directive later on (update 049).

How do you do appraisals in Probably Stolen?

You do appraisals in Probably Stolen by working through the appraisal pages in order, adding or deducting on each, and not going too low. I start at page one and add for whatever they have there, then go to the next page and deduct or add for what they have there, then the third page and deduct or add again. It's a very methodical approach of just going page one, page two, page three, and then they normally accept the answer you give. I did find that if your answer ends up too low, even if it's accurate, they won't accept it as the answer. Appraisals were a pretty good one, and quite a few came through: one customer on day 14 had me appraise five things.

How much you're paid depends on how close you get. Every appraisal slip on my second Rock Bottom run paid 20 credits, plus a cut of my estimate that grew with accuracy. A perfect appraisal (245 against a true value of 245) got 15%, so 36 credits on top. One at 76% (325 against 425) got 8%, and one at 50% (25 against 50) got 5%, which was 1 credit.

The cybernetic hand jobs come with the Station Trade Commission's guide. Every hand starts at 100 credits and can't go below 50, and you add or take off for each of these:

Armoured and blade can both apply. Two sets add more: Tactical (+100) is carbon composite, EMG+ or neural, no wear or damage, armoured and a blade; Deluxe (+200) is gold plated, neural and no wear or damage.

Should you put contraband in your display case in Probably Stolen?

No, never put contraband in your Probably Stolen display case. It almost instantly got me caught, and all my contraband got taken off of me. The developer's own pitch tells you to "hide contraband before inspections, or even bribe" (500,000 wishlists post), and their patch notes name the smuggler bay as the place it hides from an inspection (patch notes).

How do you spot counterfeit cigarettes in Probably Stolen?

You spot counterfeit cigarettes in Probably Stolen by checking the pack against the Station Trade Commission's Hemingway Cigarette Authenticity Handbook, with the magnifying glass and the colour card. On day three, my mentor came in from the docks to say a shipment of fake cigarettes had just come in, and gave me the tools. The handbook lists four things to check:

• Lettering: spelling mistakes, the wrong font or uneven print, like "HEMINGWAY" in the wrong font or "Heminway".
• Logo: the emblem drawn wrong.
• Colour: the stripes don't match the colour card.
• Security seal: real Hemingways are never sold without one, so a missing or broken seal means it's fake.

One problem is enough. Confront the customer and, if you're right, they lower the price. Falsely accuse someone and you lose reputation. A scavenger tried to sell me "genuine" Hemingways, I found a seal issue and a colour issue, confronted him, got the discount, and bought them anyway.

Should you sell fake cigarettes in Probably Stolen?

Selling fake cigarettes in Probably Stolen depends: the game wants you to, with "profit from the arrogant elite by selling them counterfeit goods" on its Steam page, but "there's always the mob justice" if it catches up with you (Probably Stolen on Steam). My first reaction? Hell yeah, I'm going to scam the hell out of them. Nah, it depends on how they get sold. If they can be sold as known counterfeits, that's probably fine. I assume if you sell too many fakes, you're going to get wrecked anyway.

How do you bargain or haggle in Probably Stolen?

You bargain (or haggle) in Probably Stolen two ways that I found: catch a fake to get the price lowered, or buy everything a seller has for a discount, which the game calls buying wholesale. A junker offered me a deal to take everything he had, and I took all his junk. When another customer wanted materials, I sold him the lot, made my money back on those items and took all of his money as well.

Every customer has a budget, and the game tells you food is the most traded commodity on the station, so keep it in stock. I sold one guy food until he couldn't afford anything else. Is that all? Yeah, piss off.

On my second Rock Bottom run I found the Bargain panel, which gives you three more when you're buying:

• Offer Markup (+10% to +75%): pay extra and get more reputation for each item.
• Demand Discount (-10% to -50%): it costs reputation for each item if it works, and whether it works depends on your reputation with their faction.
• Blackmail (Criminal) (20%): threaten to report them to Security for better prices. It always fails on customers who aren't criminals.

Is scavenging worth it in Probably Stolen?

Scavenging wasn't worth it the night I tried it. After you close the shop you can go out to the dumping grounds before you sleep, and my mentor warned me not to go every night. Each attempt has a chance of hurting you: mine showed a 10% chance of a minor wound and 2.25% for a major one. We risked it all the way through and thought we'd got nothing, then found what I'd scavenged on the ground, a couple of bits worth 50 and 20 credits, and had to get them in my bag. Your pockets only hold one item, so take the fanny pack.

The next morning, the report said I'd opened the shop late because of last night's activities and missed out on a customer. So it costs you trade as well.

On Rock Bottom I wasted 250 credits on a Scav Scanner, which was meant to improve my chance of finding valuables when scavenging. It said 15%, and it didn't appear to do fuck all. The tooltip calls it "Double Loot Chance: 15%", so it's a chance of doubling a find, not 15% more stuff, and most nights it won't do anything. There were no instructions on whether I had to take it with me or leave it behind, so I kept taking it with me. Taking it is probably right: the developers fixed the flashlight's scavenging bonus still working "while the item was left back at the store" (update 049), so scavenging gear counts when you carry it. Only one Scav Scanner works at a time, so don't buy two.

Which starting scenario should you pick in Probably Stolen?

Pick the Apprentice first. It's the starting scenario for beginners, with more starting credits, extra equipment and some household goods, and it's what I played because I didn't know what I was doing. Next I'd try Rock Bottom, where you start with nothing. I like the really difficult challenge ones: once I've understood the base mechanics, I go and play most games on whatever their most hardcore variation is.

The full game has nine starting scenarios: Apprentice, Water Merchant, Fence, Gunsmith, Chemist, Hydroponic Farmer, Aquafarmer, Rat Wrangler and Rock Bottom. On top of that there are four difficulty options, and the developer suggests combining the hardest with Rock Bottom if you want more challenge, which is exactly where I'm going (launch post).

How do you survive Rock Bottom in Probably Stolen?

Rock Bottom is the start with nothing, and I got to day 31 on it in the demo, about two hours of play. It got really hard, and the days just dragged on because I wasn't getting anything I needed. What kept me going:

• Perks that save money. I took Savings (+150 credits), Sawyer's Crew, which makes the janitorial service free unless the store gets vandalised, and Vigilant, so nothing gets stolen at night and I didn't need insurance.
• Ticking the cleaning anyway. With Sawyer's Crew it says 0 credits, and I thought I'd done it wrong, but that's right. While I wasn't ticking it, the report said the storefront wasn't cleaned and my store's attractiveness slid from 250 to 125. After I started ticking it, it was back at 250, and 366 by day 25.
• Weapons. I was broke for ages, down to 36 credits at the end of day 15, until someone finally bought weapons. Security's requisition officer came back on days 11, 18 and 25, and I ended day 25 on 708 credits.
• Not counting on appraisals. I joined the Appraiser Board on day 5 for 85 credits and got zero appraisal jobs until day 27. On my second run I joined on day 5 again, and the first jobs came on day 9.

I started a second Rock Bottom run and got to day 13 in about 40 minutes. Minimalist shrinks your inventory from 24x10 to 20x10 but gives you 3 perk points back, and Colorful Character (1 point) adds three perk slots, so I could take Secret Admirer on top of the others. Every morning, I get a random item from my secret admirer, and it's been food, been good. The perk says "occasionally", and the notes in my screenshots came on days 4, 5 and 11.

Rent day is the one to plan for: two merchants and then the landlord, last (see rent above). Watch what you stock as well, because my Spring Water brought in buyers who wouldn't touch it (see water above).

Is Probably Stolen better than Contraband Police?

From what I played, Probably Stolen is better than Contraband Police. Probably Stolen fits the Papers, Please style better, without the free roam Contraband Police has. I did like Contraband Police, but it felt like a different game that just happened to share a mechanic. It's also like Roadside Research, the alien gas station one I played recently, but I like this more, where I'm not having to run around to do everything.

Is Probably Stolen worth it?

Yes, Probably Stolen is worth it, and I'd buy it day one. I've put about two hours into the demo, got to day 15, and I don't even know when it's going to finish. I reckon I could play this for more than 20 hours, so at $17.99 it clears my $1 an hour rule.

When is Probably Stolen out and how much is it?

Probably Stolen is out now on Steam: it launched on 28 October 2026 at 13:00 UK time (2pm CET, 9am EDT, 6am PDT). It's $17.99, £15.29 or €17.99 until 11 November, which is 10% off $19.99, £16.99 or €19.99 (Probably Stolen on Steam). It isn't free.

The demo was retired at launch. Demo saves carry over, but the developer recommends starting a new game so you don't miss the newly added storylines, and mods built for the demo probably won't work with the full game (launch post).

Will Probably Stolen run on a laptop?

Probably Stolen ran fine on my gaming laptop for two hours, and I don't think it's going to have a problem running on anyone's laptop. Steam's minimum is Windows 10 64-bit, an Intel Core i3, 8 GB of RAM, a GTX 650 Ti or equivalent and 1 GB of space. It's Windows only, so there's no Mac version, and the developer's launch posts only talk about Steam, not consoles.

Does Probably Stolen have an ending?

Yes. Per the developer's 1.0 post, the full game ends when you buy the shop from the landlord, and then it shows you your stats: your most profitable sale, the days you survived, what you were worth and your perks. If you lose, you still get the stats, "a little more sad but still useful" (what's in 1.0). I haven't got there yet.

Can you buy the store in Probably Stolen?

Yes, you can buy the store from the landlord, and that's how the full game ends (launch post). I didn't manage to. On Rock Bottom I would have had to buy the shop for, I think, 1,500 credits, and a shop licence for another 1,500, so about 3,000 all in. I don't know how you actually do it, but I think the option appears with the rent: I saw it when I was checking the rent prices on the calendar. The game's log shows a business permit official came to my counter on day 31, right as I stopped, so I never found out what they wanted.

Is Probably Stolen buggy?

Probably Stolen had a few rough edges in the demo, at least. When it asked me for my settings, I applied them and the window didn't go away, so I had to close it myself, which I think is a bug. I wish more of the menus would close afterwards, and the recorder hid one customer's item from me. None of that stopped it being fun.

Probably Stolen at a glance